Computer Technology Impact on 2013 Society as Predicted in 1962 and 1988
The CIA predictions involved a speculative piece, recently released, concerning how computers might impact future U.S. intelligence gathering, data processing and analysis. The paper was written by CIA analyst Orrin Clotworthy and entitled, “Some Far-out Thoughts on Computers” which was originally published in the agency’s Studies in Intelligence in 1962. In his paper, Clotworthy wrote that there was “rising optimism” to think that behavioral scientists would someday be able to use computers “to foretell the behavior of large groups of people within reasonable limits, given accurate and timely measures of certain telltale factors.”
Clotworthy also speculates that computers could be programmed by the year 2000 to perform as a “stand-in brain” that could test out different scenarios and make predictions of the behaviors of foreign leaders. He goes on to note while storage of the information needed for such a “stand-in brain” might pose a difficult problem, getting all the data required could be “obtained with relative ease.”
Makes one think about how much access the CIA had to personal, corporate and governmental data domestic and foreign back then. As a side note, Reuters reported two weeks ago that the Obama Administration is drawing up plans to allow “all U.S. spy agencies full access to a massive database that contains financial data on American citizens and others who bank in the country.”
CIA analyst Clotworthy went on to discuss how computers would be used to support the development of multi-factor, multi-player, real-time gaming that could be used by “formulators of foreign policy” to test out policy alternatives and potential consequences. Doing the same for “intelligence games” which could be used for “training” as well as “testing operational proposals and developing doctrine” would likely quickly follow.
In addition, Clotworthy wrote about how computers could “index personnel knowledge and skills” and through analysis find out who knew who and their direct and indirect relationships. In the CIA’s case, knowing these relationships might be useful in finding out “what foreign citizens have ties of acquaintance, direct or indirect, to the staff of an intelligence organization.” Of course today, it is far easier to find that type of information out (like alleged Chinese hackers) by just checking Facebook or LinkedIn.
There are a couple of other predictions made by Clotworthy in his paper about the intelligence agencies’ future use of computers—or feeding “the monster” as he called them. If you have a chance, read it over, also keeping in mind the context of the time, i.e., that Cobol officially came out in 1960, Digital’s PDP-1 appeared in 1961 along with the IBM Selectric Typewriter, America Airlines installed the first computerized reservation system in the same year as the paper, and the IBM 360 was still three years away.
The second article in the LA Times reviews the predictions made by 30 futurologists about what life would be like in 2013. The predictions were incorporated into two essays written by Nicole Yorkin (now a television writer and producer) published in the LA Times’ April 3, 1988 magazine issue. The first essay involved the “day in the life” of a 2013 LA family, while the second looked at the barriers that might stop LA's future opportunity as a “technological utopia, an economic giant, a harmonious melding of cultures and race” from happening.
In the essay, the family had two robots (each costing about US $5000) to clean, cook and wash clothes, as well as a family robotic dog. Household appliances would be intelligent, such as a refrigerator that keep a running inventory of its contents. The father would drive to work following an electronic-map system in a car that was highly automated and could also drive itself by following “electro lanes” built into major highways. The latter capability would be an option offered for sale on family cars.
Generally speaking, the predictions outlined in the essays are optimistic but not that ridiculously far off, except maybe for the robots which were predicted to be as ubiquitous in 2013 as “a really good sound system” was in 1988. That may be truer in another 25 years. Again, if you have the time, both of Yorkin's essays are a good read, once more remembering that in 1987 Microsoft Windows 2.0 was released as well as the Sun SPARC processor, in 1988 that Microsoft MS DOS 4.0 was released as was the first major worm by Robert Morris, and that the Intel Pentium was still five years away.
Finally, for those interested in how technology is perceived to impact society, there is the Great British Innovation Vote going on in Britain aimed at identifying what is “the most important innovation of the last 100 years and the recent one most likely to shape our future.”
The voted, devised by the GREAT Britain campaign, the Science Museum Group, Royal Academy of Engineering, Royal Society, British Science Association, Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, and Engineering UK, as a way to promote Britain as a home of significant scientific and technological achievement (and thereby a good place for international high-tech companies to set up shop), has a short-list of 100 British innovations to choose from. Voting closes on the 25 March. I’ll review the results in an update to this post when they are made available.
Photo: Getty Images
Obama BANS U.S. government from buying Chinese-made computer technology over cyber-attack fears
Resolution: President Barack Obama has signed a
new law restricting U.S. government agencies from buying computer
technology made in China
The new rule, which was buried in a spending bill signed this week, comes after a string of hacks traced back to China hit some of America's most important companies.
It will only be in effect until the end of the fiscal year on September 30, but could yet pave the way for broader, more permanent changes in how the U.S. government buys technology.
'This is a change of direction,' said Stewart Baker, a former senior official at the Homeland Security Department who now works for the legal firm Steptoe and Johnson in Washington.
'My guess is we're going to keep going in this direction for a while.'
U.S. computer security firm Mandiant in March released details on what it said was an aggressive hacking campaign on American businesses by a Chinese military unit.
Since then, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew has used high-level meetings with Beijing officials to press the matter.
Beijing has denied the allegations.
Apple CEO Apologizes to Chinese Customers for Poor Warranty Support
After heavy criticism of its warranty policies in China, Apple CEO Tim
Cook apologized publicly to Chinese customers and pledged to improve.
Media outlets such as China Central Television, bolstered by posts online from celebrities, have been bashing Apple recently for what they claim is unfair warranty and repair procedures for Chinese customers. The reports suggested that Apple provides customers in other countries with better service than it offers in China, pointing out, by example, that the company replaces faulty smartphones in the United States with new devices but only offers repaired phones or recycled components in China.
At first, Apple defended itself by clarifying its warranty policy on its Chinese website with the notation that it repairs phones with new components but retains the original case, affirming that its 90-day guarantee exceeds the 30 days required by Chinese law, and stating that it applies its warranties relatively equally throughout the world.
But yesterday, Cook went a step farther, issuing a letter of apology and promising that Apple will upgrade its iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S repair policy for Chinese customers, will clearly post a statement of its repair and warranty policy on its Chinese website, supply better training for its service providers in China and offer new replacement devices for users with Apple’s one-year warranty plan instead of only replacing faulty parts as was previously done.
Some suggested that Cook’s open letter was prompted by concerns that the disapproval over Apple’s warranty policies cloaked the Chinese government’s real intention to discredit the company while encouraging domestic smartphone development. Certainly, China is a key growth market for Apple, so there may be more than a grain of truth here. For example, last December Apple disclosed that it had sold more than 2 million iPhone 5 smartphones in China since the unit’s launch there on Dec. 14, shattering its previous sales records. Overall, the Chinese market produced nearly $24 billion in sales for Apple in 2012 and the vendor is said to be working on a carrier deal with China Mobile, the country’s largest carrier with some 700 million subscribers, that could explode its reach in the market.
Here’s the full text of Cook’s letter (translated from Chinese, I'm sure, which would explain the oddly worded sentences and sentence fragments):
"To our Chinese consumers: In the past two weeks, we have received a lot of feedback about Apple in China repair and warranty policy. We are not only a profound reflection on these views, together with relevant departments to carefully study the 'Three Guarantees,' and also look at our maintenance policy communication and combing our management specifications of Apple Authorized Service Provider. We are aware that, due to the lack of external communication in this process and lead to the speculation that Apple arrogance, do not care or do not attach importance to consumer feedback. We express our sincere apologies for any concerns or misunderstandings this gives consumers.
"In order to further improve the level of service, we are implementing the following four major adjustments:
- Improved iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S repair policy
- Provide a concise and clear on the website of the official Apple repair and warranty policy statement
- Increase the intensity of the supervision and training of Apple Authorized Service Provider
- Related issues to ensure that consumers can easily contact Apple Feedback Service
"iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S repair policy improvements are as follows:
So far, iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S repair this in one of three ways: as from the purchase date of 15 days found the problem, we will be entitled to a refund or replacement for consumers recalculated 1 year warranty period iPhone; 15 days after discovery problem, Apple will replace the part depending, such as camera modules or batteries; replacement parts also cannot quickly repaired the iPhone, Apple will provide consumers with a part reassembled new parts, retaining only the consumers existing iPhone 4 or iPhone 4S back cover. Nearly 90% of customers expressed satisfaction with our repair services, and consumer satisfaction is the most important criterion for Apple to measure its own success. But others suggested that part of the re-assembly of repair almost replace the machine, so the direct replacement of a device will be more beneficial to consumers. Therefore, since April 2013, Apple iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S service pack upgrade for all 1-year warranty on new equipment replacement parts and replacement date recalculated. Consumer iPhone 4 or iPhone 4S Apple or an Apple Authorized Service Provider has been part of the re-assembly kit maintenance, we will replace them as whole and for maintenance after the iPhone recalculated from the date of repair year warranty. Apple’s warranty system has been updated for the information and, therefore, affected consumers do not need to take any additional action.
"Now, all consumers can see on our site clear and comprehensive maintenance and warranty policy terms and conditions.
"We are pleased to provide consumers with information who wish to learn more about the after-sales service. For example, we have been to provide 2 year warranty for the MacBook Air and Mac computer motherboards and other major components. Likewise, the the iPad main components has been entitled to a 2-year warranty period, and other components for 1 year warranty.
"We realize that our site before this is not clearly stated policy. Hope the following will answer all the questions about Apple provides services.
"Apple is to make greater efforts to ensure that Apple Authorized Service Provider to follow our policies, and make every effort to provide consumers with the highest quality service.
"Week since March 18, 2013, we made a new training materials for all Apple Authorized Service Provider to ensure that each staff provide services for Apple products is not only familiar with our policies, but also to grasp three guarantees “provisions and related policies. The same time, we have taken the initiative through face-to-face meetings and other forms of verification and to ensure that each Apple Authorized Service Provider have opened training courses to update the knowledge of the staff for the maintenance and warranty policies. We will make unremitting efforts and continuous monitoring of the performance of the Apple Authorized Service Provider to ensure that consumers can get the highest quality service.
"Now, the feedback service-related issue is also very convenient. As the consumers of the services provided by any Apple Store retail store or an Apple authorized service provider doubt, to Welcome www.apple.com.cn/support/service/feedback/ directly get in touch with us. Our goal is to consumers where to buy Apple products or receive services, users can enjoy world-class experience. Heartfelt thank you to give us valuable feedback, we always harbor immense respect to China, the Chinese consumer is always the top priority of our hearts.
"Tim Cook
Apple CEO"
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